Spain, 2026 world championsIn summary: With the first Round of 32 ties already played, France stand as the strongest favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. Argentina remain in the race if they get through their knockout opener, while Brazil, England and Mexico have already reached the Round of 16. Germany and the Netherlands are out after penalty defeats to Paraguay and Morocco.
The favorites after the first Round of 32 ties
The group stage shaped the first contender map, but the Round of 32 has already changed it. Germany were eliminated by Paraguay and the Netherlands fell to Morocco, both on penalties. Brazil, France, Mexico and England advanced with different levels of authority, and the 2026 World Cup bracket is starting to separate real contenders from big names with no margin left.
For this analysis we evaluate five verifiable factors: knockout result, squad quality, in-form stars, defensive strength and immediate bracket path. The percentage is an editorial projection as of July 1, not sportsbook odds.
| # | Team | Status | Latest result | Title chance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | Into Round of 16 | France 3-0 Sweden | 24% | Main favorite because of Mbappé, depth and an immediate tie against Paraguay. |
| 2 |  Argentina | Round of 32 pending | Won Group J | 18% | The defending champions must confirm their case in the first knockout tie. |
| 3 |  Brazil | Into Round of 16 | Brazil 2-1 Japan | 13% | They survived, but Vinícius and Martinelli keep the attacking ceiling high. |
| 4 |  England | Into Round of 16 | England 2-1 DR Congo | 11% | Kane rescued them with a brace; the defense still left questions. |
| 5 |  Mexico | Into Round of 16 | Mexico 2-0 Ecuador | 8% | Defense and home advantage make this a more serious run than usual. |
| 6 |  Norway | Into Round of 16 | Norway 2-1 Ivory Coast | 7% | Haaland keeps the dream alive, but the team need more control without the ball. |
| 7 |  Canada | Into Round of 16 | Canada 1-0 South Africa | 5% | The co-hosts are growing with solidity and a knockout win already banked. |
| 8 |  Morocco | Into Round of 16 | Morocco eliminated Netherlands | 5% | They knocked out a European power and again look uncomfortable for anyone. |
1. Argentina: defending the title
Why are they favorites?
Argentina arrived at the 2026 World Cup as defending champions and have responded with authority. Lionel Messi, at 39, already has 6 goals in the tournament and has reached 19 World Cup goals, the all-time record. La Albiceleste won Group J with a perfect record, but their contender status still needs confirmation in the knockout phase.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Strength: unmatched World Cup experience (2022 champions, Copa América winners 2021 and 2024), Messi in legend mode, "Dibu" Martínez as a penalty factor.
- Strength: Enzo Fernández and Julián Álvarez bring youth and dynamism.
- Weakness: Messi's age (39) could be a factor in physically demanding knockout matches. Scaloni must manage his minutes wisely.
- Key stat: Argentina haven't lost a World Cup knockout match since the 2018 semifinal against France (2-4). Since then, 9 consecutive knockout wins.
2. France: Mbappé's goal machine
Why are they favorites?
France won Group I and then beat Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32. Kylian Mbappé has 6 goals in 2026 and 18 in World Cup history. Deschamps' team do not just have the strongest Golden Boot candidate: they also have Dembélé, Barcola and a structure that can sustain knockout matches.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Strength: Mbappé in his prime (27), Dembélé as secondary scorer, exceptional squad depth.
- Strength: finals experience (2018 champions, 2022 runners-up).
- Weakness: the defense has conceded 2 goals, more than Argentina or Mexico.
- Key stat: Mbappé is 27, the perfect age for a World Cup. At this rate he could overtake Messi as the all-time top scorer before the final.
3. Germany: why they are no longer contenders
What changed?
Germany crushed Curaçao 7-1 on matchday one and looked like one of the tournament's most dangerous attacks. But that production no longer matters for the title: Paraguay eliminated them on penalties after a 1-1 draw at Gillette Stadium. Kai Havertz equalized, but Germany failed in the shootout and exited before the Round of 16.
- Read: the group stage can inflate a prediction, but knockouts punish small details.
- Blow: Germany did not just lose a match, they lost a side of the bracket that looked manageable.
- Impact: their exit opens space for France, Brazil, England and Mexico in the contender map.
4. Brazil: the Seleção on the rise
Brazil started with a 1-1 draw against Morocco, grew during the group stage and have already survived their first knockout tie: 2-1 over Japan with a stoppage-time goal from Gabriel Martinelli. The Seleção have enough individual talent, but the Japan match was a warning: they can suffer if they do not score early.
- Strength: Vinícius Júnior, Martinelli and a generation with one-on-one quality to solve tight games.
- Weakness: the Morocco draw and the Japan scare showed concentration issues.
- Key stat: Brazil haven't won a World Cup since 2002. A 24-year drought, their longest ever.
5. Colombia: the South American surprise
Colombia have been one of the tournament's revelations. La Tricolor won Group K with authority: 3-1 over Uzbekistan and 1-0 against DR Congo. James Rodríguez remains the team's brain at 34, Luis Díaz creates havoc on the wing and Daniel Muñoz scores from right-back.
- Strength: solid collective under Néstor Lorenzo, James as playmaker, Díaz as difference-maker.
- Weakness: never gone past the quarterfinals at a World Cup (2014 was their best).
- Key stat: the 2024 Copa América, where Colombia reached the final against Argentina, proved this generation can compete at the highest level.
6. England: British balance
England thrashed Croatia 4-2 in the group stage and survived a difficult Round of 32 match: a 2-1 comeback over DR Congo with a Harry Kane brace. The good news is that Kane appears in big moments. The concern is that England conceded first and had to suffer more than expected.
- Strength: Kane as clinical finisher, Bellingham in his prime, deep squad with Premier League players.
- Weakness: the 0-0 draw against Ghana showed a lack of cutting edge in some matches.
- Key stat: England haven't won a World Cup since 1966, 60 years ago.
7. Mexico: the home advantage
Mexico finished the group stage as the team with the best defense in the tournament: clean sheet in all 3 matches. They then confirmed that solidity with a 2-0 win over Ecuador. Being co-hosts is no longer just emotional context: El Tri are turning home advantage into competitive value.
- Strength: clean sheet, home advantage, fan support.
- Weakness: historically haven't gone past the quarterfinals. The "fifth match curse" remains the barrier.
- Key stat: this is the third time Mexico hosts (1970, 1986, 2026). Both previous times they reached the quarterfinals.
Top scorers: who makes the difference
| # | Player | Team | 2026 | Hist. | Golden Boot odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé | France | 6 | 18 | Differential factor for the main favorite. |
| 1 | Lionel Messi | Argentina | 6 | 19 | Engine of the defending champions if Argentina advance. |
| 3 | Erling Haaland | Norway | 5 | 5 | Can change any knockout tie in one action. |
| 3 | Harry Kane | England | 5 | 11 | Already rescued England against DR Congo. |
| 5 | Vinícius Júnior | Brazil | 4 | 4 | Brazil's attacking ceiling depends on his one-on-one threat. |
| 5 | Ousmane Dembélé | France | 4 | 4 | Makes France less dependent on Mbappé alone. |
The knockout bracket: who faces whom
Round of 32 (June 28 - July 3)
With several Round of 32 ties complete, the 2026 World Cup bracket is starting to show real paths. France will face Paraguay in the Round of 16, Brazil meet Norway, Mexico play England and Morocco face Canada. The bracket is more open than expected because Germany and the Netherlands are already out.
Potential quarterfinal and semifinal matchups
The Round of 16 already has ties that can reshape the tournament: France must avoid Paraguay's emotional trap, Brazil face Haaland's direct threat and Mexico against England will be a huge test for El Tri's defense. If Argentina, Colombia or Portugal advance in their pending ties, the other side of the bracket can become much tougher quickly.
Stats that matter
Best defenses
| Team | Goals conceded | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 0 | 3 matches |
| Argentina | 1 | 2 matches |
| Brazil | 1 | 1 match |
 Colombia | 1 | 1 match |
Best attacks
| Team | Goals scored | Per match |
|---|---|---|
 Germany | 11 | 3.67 |
| France | 9 | 3.00 |
| Argentina | 7 | 2.33 |
| Norway | 7 | 2.33 |
World Cup titles: historical context
| Team | Titles | Years | Last title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 5 | 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002 | 2002 |
| Germany | 4 | 1954, 1974, 1990, 2014 | 2014 |
| Argentina | 3 | 1978, 1986, 2022 | 2022 |
| France | 2 | 1998, 2018 | 2018 |
| England | 1 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Colombia | 0 | - | - |
| Mexico | 0 | - | - |
Our prediction: top 3
1. France (main favorite)
France are the strongest candidate because of form, finishing power and depth. Mbappé is flying, Dembélé adds a second route to goal and the 3-0 win over Sweden was a statement. The Paraguay tie requires focus, but in normal conditions France have the most complete squad among the teams already in the Round of 16.
2. Argentina (if they confirm in their tie)
Argentina keep the credentials of defending champions and have Messi scoring heavily. The difference with France is that Argentina still need to clear their Round of 32 match. If they do it with authority, they move back level with the main favorite.
3. Brazil, England and Mexico (direct chasers)
Brazil are through but suffered against Japan. England are also through, although they needed two late Kane goals. Mexico, meanwhile, are building their candidacy on defense and home advantage. All three sit one step below France and Argentina, but they have something essential: they are alive and have already won a knockout match.
Follow the tournament
- Interactive 2026 World Cup Bracket: visualize each team's path.
- Final group-stage standings.
- Argentina's path at the 2026 World Cup.
- Colombia's path at the 2026 World Cup.
- Mexico's path at the 2026 World Cup.
- 2026 World Cup stadiums and venues.
- Full schedule: all 104 matches.
- Today's matches: times, scores and where to watch.
Sources: scores loaded on Bracket Mundial 2026, the tournament bracket and historical data verified with FIFA.com. Updated: July 1, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
After the first Round of 32 ties, France look like the strongest favorite because of form, depth and Kylian Mbappé. Argentina remain a major contender if they win their knockout opener, while Brazil, England and Mexico have already advanced.
What are the odds for the 2026 World Cup?
This ranking uses an editorial read based on results, bracket path, stars, defense and current momentum. It does not force sportsbook odds: Germany and the Netherlands are already eliminated and have left the contender group.
Can Mexico win the 2026 World Cup as hosts?
Mexico can fight for a semifinal if their defensive level holds. They finished the group stage without conceding and have already beaten Ecuador 2-0 in the Round of 32.
Who are the top scorers at the 2026 World Cup?
The Golden Boot race also affects the title picture: Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi lead with 6 goals, followed by Erling Haaland and Harry Kane with 5. Their teams depend heavily on that production.
When do the Round of 32 matches start at the 2026 World Cup?
The Round of 32 began on June 28 and runs through July 3, 2026. As of July 1, Canada, Paraguay, Morocco, Brazil, France, Norway, Mexico and England have advanced.
Which team has the best defense at the 2026 World Cup?
Mexico remain the defensive reference after a clean group stage and a 2-0 win over Ecuador. France, Brazil and England have also shown they can win knockout matches without playing perfectly.
Article by
Luis MoralesJournalist and founder of the blog
Luis Morales is a professional journalist who graduated from Universidad del Externado de Colombia and the founder of this World Cup 2026 blog. He has worked for over three years as a copywriter specialized in football and major sporting events. Every article combines journalistic rigor with verification against official FIFA sources to deliver clear, accurate and useful information for fans.
Journalist and content writer · Universidad del Externado de Colombia · 3+ years
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