The favorites to win the World Cup 2026: data and the path for each contender

Spain: one of the big favorites

Spain arrive as one of the strongest candidates to lift the title at MetLife Stadium on July 19. La Roja are in one of their best recent spells:

• Euro 2024 champions
• Second in the April 2026 FIFA Ranking
• The most talented generation in decades: Lamine Yamal (18), Pedri, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo
• Group H with Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, a manageable group for the Spanish powerhouse

Why could Spain fall short?

The only risk factor is pressure. Spain have been favorites before (2010 was the exception that proved the rule) and being the favorite can weigh on the dressing room. On top of that, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams will be leading roles in a tournament of this magnitude for the first time; youth is a virtue, but also an unknown.

France: the Mbappé threat

Kylian Mbappé is at the peak of his career and France have a solid squad in every position. France top the April 2026 FIFA Ranking and sit alongside Spain among the big contenders. Group I (Senegal, Norway, Iraq) will test the 2018 world champions.

The record Mbappé is chasing

Mbappé arrives as a potential record scorer: if he passes Fontaine's 6 goals (1958) in a single tournament, he would enter the World Cup record books. Alongside Dembélé, Griezmann and a solid defense, France have plenty of arguments for the title. The key will be whether Didier Deschamps finds the balance between attacking and not leaving gaps at the back.

Argentina: defending the throne

Argentina arrive as reigning champions. They are in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan, a favorable draw for La Albiceleste.

The Messi factor: the last dance

The big question is Messi. At 39 on June 24, 2026, while the tournament is underway, this could be his last World Cup. In Qatar 2022 he was the tournament's best player at 35. The emotional factor and the pressure of defending the title could work for or against him.

Without Messi, Argentina still have Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández and a solid collective. But with Messi, it is a completely different dimension, something no statistical model fully captures.

Brazil: chasing a sixth title

Brazil carry the weight of the home World Cup (2014) and the penalty-shootout exit to Croatia in Qatar. With Vinícius Júnior as one of their stars, Brazil have arguments, but their Group C is not easy: Morocco reached the semifinals in Qatar and can make life difficult.

England: is this the moment?

With Jude Bellingham at Real Madrid, Harry Kane as the Premier League's all-time top scorer and a deep generation, England have one of their most complete squads in decades. Their Group L (Croatia, Ghana, Panama) is accessible, with the asterisk that England have a history of letting it slip at major tournaments.

The outsider: Norway with Haaland

This is Norway's first big stage as a football power. Erling Haaland, on a historic scoring run with Manchester City, arrives at the tournament that can define his legacy. Norway are in Group I with France, Senegal and Iraq, a tough group that will test whether the team can handle the elite level without relying on Haaland alone.

Contenders compared